Deere just posted its first year-over-year profit gain in three years — and construction did the heavy lifting, with orders running so hot that backlog now stretches into fiscal 2027. That's the kind of tightness that should be shaping every trade-in conversation you have this week, especially with Volvo simultaneously cutting its own lead times by six-plus weeks out of a new Pennsylvania plant. Two stories today, both about who gets iron to a jobsite fastest.
JOHN DEERE — Q3 PROFIT JUMPS AS CONSTRUCTION BACKLOG STRETCHES INTO 2027 (Demand Signals)
[National · Construction & Forestry Segment]
Seller takeaway: Stop quoting standard lead times on Deere iron — tell customers backlog now runs into fiscal 2027, and use it to justify locking in orders now.
What happened — Deere posted fiscal Q3 net income of $1.379 billion, its first year-over-year profit increase in three years, and raised its full-year 2026 net income outlook to $4.75–$5 billion. The lift came almost entirely from construction: segment sales rose 18% and operating profit surged 84%, driven by U.S. infrastructure spending and AI data-center construction, with customer backlogs now extending well into fiscal 2027.
Why sellers care — A backlog stretching a year-plus out isn't just Deere's problem — it's leverage for you. A customer weighing "wait and see" against ordering now has a concrete number to react to, and it's a live argument for financing sooner rather than later, before rates or allocation windows shift.
VOLVO CE — FIRST U.S.-BUILT EXCAVATORS AND LARGE WHEEL LOADERS ROLL OFF THE LINE (Competitive Intel)
[National · Excavators & Wheel Loaders]
Seller takeaway: If you sell against Volvo CE, know their lead times just got shorter — don't assume your import-timeline advantage still holds.
What happened — Volvo Construction Equipment marked its first U.S.-built excavators and large wheel loaders rolling off the line at its expanded Shippensburg, Pennsylvania plant on Aug. 19 — less than a year after announcing the localization plan. More than half of Volvo CE's North American machines are now produced domestically, with 11 additional models (16- to 24-ton loaders, 13- to 52-ton excavators) shifting to the plant and lead times cut by more than six weeks.
Why sellers care — A six-week lead-time cut is a real competitive lever, not a marketing line — it changes how Volvo dealers compete on availability against Cat, Deere, and Komatsu. If you're fielding "who can get it to me fastest" conversations, assume Volvo just moved up the list.
FINANCING WATCH: EQUIPMENT LEASE VOLUME COOLS AS CONFIDENCE EASES (Market Pulse)
[National · Financing]
Seller takeaway: Don't assume financing approvals move as fast as they did this spring — start pre-qualification conversations earlier in the sales cycle.
What the data says — ELFA's Monthly Confidence Index eased to 62.4 in August from 63.7 in July — still in an elevated range, but the second straight monthly dip. New equipment lease and loan business volume (MLFI-25) fell 10% month-over-month and 17% year-over-year.
Why sellers care — Softer financing volume alongside easing confidence is an early signal, not a crisis — but it's worth watching for tighter approval timelines or more conservative terms from captive and third-party lenders heading into Q4. Get ahead of it by starting the financing conversation earlier instead of at close.
That's the brief. See you Thursday. — Deeps
P.S. — I'm building a one-page comparison library for the sales floor: spec deltas, TCO, five-year resale, walk-around talking points. Tell me the two machines you go head-to-head on most and it jumps to the front of the queue.